By David Stockman
The U.S. is heading straight for a fiscal calamity in the next decade. Even if you believe the CBO’s Rosy Scenario projections——-which assume that we will go 207 months thru 2026 without a recession or double the longest expansion on record and nearly 4X the normal cycle length—–we will still end up with $28 trillion of national debt and a $1.3 trillion annual deficit (5% of GDP) by 2026.
But that’s the optimistic case! As I demonstrated recently, if you get real about all the enormous headwinds down the road—-including the virtual certainty that the Red Ponzi will have a crashing landing and take the global economy down with it—- you end up with a truly dismal picture.
To wit, just assume economic performance during the next ten years is no better or worse than the average of the last ten years, including the last decade’s 2.5% growth rate of wage and salary income.
The result is that by the out-years CBO has over-estimated taxable income by more than 20% or $2 trillion per year; and that means, in turn, that CBOs current forecast is built on massive phantom revenues, given that under current law the payroll and income tax take from wages and salaries is just under 35%.
Accordingly, with sober economic assumptions and existing policy, the annual deficit is heading for $2-3 trillion per year by the middle of the next decade. This means the nation will accumulate an incremental debt of $15 trillion or more in the interim, and that by 2026 the national debt will reach $34 trillion or 140% of GDP.......
My Take - Strange article but thought provoking, and as you read this article I think it's important to understand Russia has seven defensive gaps they must defend. They only have the manpower to defend three and two of them are around the Ukraine. I also think it's important to realize no matter who's elected we've come to an end of the Bretton Woods era of thinking of so much foreign involvement, including military involvement, because we're broke, and this continued deficit spending is going to take us down the drain whether the President and Congress want it to or not because the world is broke.....and for the same reasons. The EU is doomed, they will be in a civil war soon and that will bankrupt all of Europe. When that happen swhat's left of Russia's economy will collapse and China will nose dive because their economy is based on exports and full employment - not profitability - and is incapable of being self-sustaining and their banks are a bigger mess than ours were during the housing collapse. The asylum is being run by the inmates....and there's no way any of this will be avoided.
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